The lights go out. A hurricane pounds the Island. There's an outbreak of highly contagious flu. Terrorists have attacked New York City.

Are we ready?

Experts grappled with that question Tuesday at a Catastrophe Readiness program in Centereach, saying readiness for a major storm or other disaster is more important than ever in the post-Katrina and post-9/11 era.

"We are in theory overdue [for a hurricane]," said Matthew Crosson, president of the Long Island Association, the Island's largest business group. "Somewhere along the line ... it's going to happen."

Yet a recent survey of 200 registered voters conducted by the Middle Country Library showed that they believed that less than 15 percent of average Long Island households are prepared to deal with a potential catastrophe.

The survey of Centereach and Selden residents also found more than three-quarters of respondents think a catastrophe is imminent.

"Everybody says they're prepared, but they're not," said Albert DeStefano, a salesman for Generation Power Systems, residential standby generators, who was at the event.

Officials from Suffolk emergency management, LIPA, Stony Brook University Medical Center, Allstate, Suffolk Police and the National Weather Service shared worst-case scenarios as well as readiness tips for both businesses and residents. About 100 people attended the second annual forum of its kind at the Middle Country library, which hosts a permanent catastrophe clearinghouse aimed to educate the public.

If a hurricane strikes, LIPA spokesman Bert Cunningham explained a category one storm could mean up to nine days without power. A category four could wipe out the system.

"Now is the time to do your planning," Cunningham said.

The library houses a Catastrophe Readiness Clearinghouse sponsored by a grant from the Allstate Foundation that provides tools for families, individuals, and small businesses for catastrophic events.

Residents browsed through biohazard suits and go-bag emergency kits at the catastrophe fair after the seminar.

Cheryl Williams, 50, of Wheatley Heights, clutched a packet of information on how to evacuate her pet Chihuahua, Angel. "I had never thought about how to keep my pet safe," Williams said.

While hurricane readiness made up the majority of the presentation, panelists also spoke about a potential pandemic flu and possible terrorist activity.

Sgt. James Caiaccia, Emergency Management Commander of the Suffolk police, said terrorism can happen here.

"It's not so much we have a big target on Long Island -- and they are looking for big names -- it doesn't mean they are not here," he said, adding they could use Suffolk as a training or staging area.

Susan Donelan, director of the Department of Healthcare Epidemiology at Stony Brook University Medical Center, said pandemic flu could affect a million Long Islanders.

Library Director Sandy Feinberg said the presentation should resonate with residents. "hey may not go home and get a go-bag," she said, "but it does start them thinking."

Marathon delays that left Long Islanders stranded on rain-soaked roads for hours last Wednesday should have taught everyone a painful lesson.

Government confirmed what it perhaps has known for decades -- evacuating an island with 2.8 million residents in a regional emergency such as a hurricane would be virtually impossible.

But while officials in government, the Long Island Power Authority, transportation agencies and the American Red Cross say they have upped the pace of preparation for a major storm, their message to residents is this: Long Islanders, you need to do more to prepare yourselves.

Weather experts predict the probabilities are ever higher a major hurricane will strike the Northeast. On Long Island, that could bring a destructive storm surge, particularly to the South Shore.

"We have been in what is called an 'active hurricane cycle' since 1995, where every year we've had above-normal tropical storms, except the years when an El Nino was present," said Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, who has more than three decades experience.

"Anyone who lives on the Eastern Seaboard should definitely be concerned," he said. "It may be next year, it may be in five years or 50 years, but someday it's going to happen."

Major improvements in recent years -- the Long Island Power Authority alone has begun spending $25 million annually to storm-proof its power lines and other equipment -- won't be enough to fully prepare, officials concede.

"Evacuating people off of Long Island is impossible," Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy said. "You prepare for the things you know you can do."

What that means for Long Islanders, Levy and others said, is paying attention to forecasts, having a plan in place and allowing enough time to act on it. In other words, if you haven't left home before the heavy rain and winds begin, don't.

If people take to their vehicles in a bad storm's midst, "we might not be able to reach critical destinations to restore power," LIPA chief executive Richard Kessel said. "So one of the things we're going to take a look at is what we can do to communicate to the public" and tell them to stay home after the storm hits.

Since Katrina devastated New Orleans two years ago, LIPA and county officials have acknowledged emergency preparedness measures were inadequate and have taken steps to improve them.

Although road drainage improvements could be made, Levy said government can only do so much to prepare.

"Someone might have a knee-jerk reaction and say, 'Let's get $2 billion for a better drainage system because we had some record rainfall on our roadways,' but I'm not sure that would do any better," Levy said.

All levels of government have increased their pace of preparation for a major storm:

Counties prepare for storm

Eileen Peters, spokeswoman for the state Department of Transportation, emphasized that no one should be on the roads during a hurricane. But she said the DOT is prepared for such an emergency, with 700 to 1,000 employees ready to respond to such a storm. She also said that road crews would check drains and basins in advance of a storm as well as shore up vulnerable roadways. The DOT is purchasing response trailers that carry road-clearing equipment and pumps that can be deployed to affected areas.

The counties since have identified hurricane-proof shelters and made ready thousands of cots, blankets and other supplies. In Nassau, Office of Emergency Management director James Callahan said they recently placed 15 cargo containers -- each containing 1,000 cots and 2,000 blankets -- at various shelter sites. Meanwhile, 172,000 bottles of water and 23,000 military-style "Meals Ready to Eat" are loaded on six trucks in a warehouse. Similar supplies are in place or on their way in Suffolk.

A state-funded $1 million public awareness campaign has begun to combat that complacency. It includes an American Red Cross Web site, liprepares.org, coupled with a new ad campaign on television, newspapers, billboards, brochures and Frisbees urging residents to be prepared.

The investments were spurred by a state report in December 2005 that gave Nassau and Suffolk dismal grades in preparedness. The report was prepared by then-state Sen. Michael Balboni, then chairman of the Senate's homeland security committee. Suffolk got a D and Nassau an F. The Island's sheltering and communications plans came in for particular criticism.

Balboni, who has since been appointed the state's top homeland security official, said Friday he'd raise the Island's grade to at least a low B. As a state senator, he secured $5 million for emergency preparedness last year.

Officials say the region still faces one major hurdle: Long Island's residents.

"People are going to wait until the last minute to evacuate," said Gil Hanse, Babylon's director of emergency preparedness. "That's what's going to create problems."

Raising public awareness key

At dozens of community meetings convened in recent months to raise awareness, "the turnout has been very low," said Michael Wyllie, chief meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Upton. "The feeling of 'it's not going to happen here' is prevalent across Long Island."

While recent storms have ravaged the Gulf Coast, making it seem like a far-away problem, it's not.

"We typically get hit every 20 years," Wyllie said, referring to damage Hurricane Gloria wrought on the Island in 1985. "It's been 22 years, so we're well past our due date."

Long Island ranks about fourth on the nationwide threat list, after New Orleans/coastal Mississippi, Miami and the coastal Carolinas, he said.

Even though roadway flooding turned the Wednesday morning commute into a crawl for many, storm surge from a hurricane would be a far worse problem, with waves of up to 28 feet crushing homes in coastal communities, Callahan said.

Still, more can be done, Balboni said, noting a lack of an Islandwide coordinated communication system. And there are concerns about their untested plans to evacuate and help vulnerable populations, such as nursing home residents.

In terms of volunteer help, the Red Cross still needs about 1,500 people in each county to properly staff its hurricane shelters, but they now have only a few hundred. If there are not enough volunteers, they may have to ask evacuees to volunteer even as they show up at shelters, said Samuel Kille, public relations director for the Nassau County chapter of the American Red Cross.

Many Long Islanders can stay at home, but those who live along the South Shore would be particularly vulnerable and likely to evacuate the threat of storm surge. There are 50 designated shelters, 25 in each county. The shelters can house 25,000 to 30,000 people in each county.

"Our greatest fear is Long Islanders think it won't happen here," said Priscilla Lee, communications director with the Suffolk County chapter of the American Red Cross. "Hurricane Gloria was destructive and the Island is much more populated than it was 20 years ago."

Kessel called Wednesday's record rains "a reminder that as much as we've moved forward and prepared, it's important for the public to understand its role."

"The greatest need is actually self-preparedness," said Joe Williams, Suffolk's commissioner of Fire, Rescue and Emergency Services. "We have plans in place, but individuals need to start making their own plans."

Staff writer Peter Holley contributed to this story.

Living on the water in Port Washington, Rosalie Silver knows that a major hurricane will likely mean she will have to evacuate.

But she can't just pick up and leave. Silver cares for her 78-year-old mother, Bella Temer, who suffers from dementia. They may have to leave days before a storm is expected to make landfall, and possibly go as far as Chicago to the home of her sister.

"Everybody else can wait the 10 hours or eight hours before a storm," Silver said. "I don't think I could. She doesn't do well in a panic situation."

For Long Island's most vulnerable populations - those in nursing homes, hospitals, homebound or who have medical conditions that make such transitions complicated - leaving or enduring a hurricane and its aftermath can be especially difficult.

The state requires all inpatient and residential health care facilities to have evacuation plans. But, in a post-Katrina world, many emergency responders and health care workers on Long Island are going beyond that regulation and expanding readiness plans to accommodate these most vulnerable, would-be evacuees.

"Hurricane Katrina changed what emergency preparedness planners thought was a plausible scenario for a coastal storm - the complete devastation of the infrastructure of a community," said Brian O'Neill, vice president of emergency services for North Shore Long Island Jewish Health System.

That means planning on Long Island for a possible total evacuation of facilities in flood zones, such as the 300-bed Southside Hospital in Bay Shore, which sits just a few blocks from the Great South Bay. Staffers there recently ran a drill using patient volunteers to practice moving them from the hospital, O'Neill said.

The North Shore system also has been equipped with radio communication, satellite phones and satellite Internet access. There are plans to ensure that enough staff is able to get to work to tend to patients.

North Shore employees who live south of the Southern State Parkway will be asked to partner with employees who live away from the flood zone so families can shelter there. They also plan to house some employees and their families in hotels in the center of the Island.

Both Suffolk and Nassau counties have similar plans to accommodate families of first responders.

"One of the most important things we are doing is providing care for the family of the emergency worker," said Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy. "It's irrelevant if you have a bus if you don't have a bus driver."

Suffolk also has created a database of residents who are unable to leave their home without emergency assistance so the county can check on them. About 350 residents have registered so far.

Both counties also plan to open special needs shelters to house evacuees who need extra care such as residents who need oxygen or who are in wheelchairs. Nassau County has scheduled a training session today at Holy Trinity High School in Hicksville for volunteers for such shelters.

And, some local fire departments have stockpiled supplies to assist people unable to evacuate.

John Carney, chief of the Brentwood Volunteer Fire Department, said it has purchased satellite phones, chainsaws, portable generators, non-perishable foods, cots and blankets. They also have a truck that can travel through high water.

Still, with forecasters saying the region is overdue for a major storm, some officials say more could be done. Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer released a study last year finding that the State Department of Health has failed to adequately prepare nursing homes in New York City for evacuation in the case of a major emergency.

State health department officials said they have reviewed 661 evacuation plans, made recommendations for improvement, provided training and continue to work with facilities to improve their plans.

People who care for the disabled or elderly should develop a plan as well, experts say. But they acknowledge that may be hard to do.

"Many of them they have difficulty getting them up and dressed for the day," said Stephanie DePalma, director of day programs for the Long Island Alzheimer's Foundation in Port Washington. "I can't see them preparing for something down the road."